World Animal Foundation
in the interest of animals...
Search Our Site
It might be argued that without the
multiplier of population none of the
problems we confront would be of
sufficient magnitude to qualify as
"global". Certainly if population were
stable, all of these issues would be
far more manageable.
Six Billion and Counting
World population exceeded six billion in 1999 doubling from three billion in 1960 and is currently increasing by 80 to 85 million people each year. Depending upon the choices we make over the next few decades, demographers at the United Nations project world population in 2050 could be anywhere 7.3 billion to 10.7 billion. It is important to note that these scenarios assume fertility will decline significantly in the future. If all regions continue to grow at the same rate that they were at the turn of the century, Earth's population in 2050 would be more than 14 billion.
A number of factors drive this growth. At the most basic level, it is because far more people are born each year than die. Advances in nutrition and health care have increased survival rates and longevity for much of the world, and shifted the balance between births and deaths.
Another is population "momentum". Even though fertility rates have come down worldwide from an average of six children per woman in 1950 to 2.9 children per woman in 2000 there are many more people of childbearing age today than ever before. Roughly half the world's population is under age 25, so as those three billion people start families over the next few decades, world population will likely increase by several billion.
Another reason for continued high levels of population growth is that fertility rates remain relatively high in some populous regions like Africa and South Central Asia. Broadly speaking, population growth is higher in those regions because levels of income and education are lower there.
Decisions about family size are often based on economic factors, and in poorer societies, numerous children may be an important asset. They provide support and security in parents' old age, help raise food, haul water, care for younger siblings, and gather fuel wood. Children may also work for wages outside the home, be indentured, or even sold to help support the family.
Fertility is also closely linked to education. The more education people have, the more economic options they generally have, and the fewer children they are likely to want or need. In the areas of the world where education levels are highest--Europe, Japan, China, the former Soviet Bloc, and North America-- fertility is correspondingly lowest.
How Many People Can the Earth Support?
Carrying capacity is the maximum number of people the Earth can support without endangering its ability to support that population in the future. A population that does not erode the resource base or otherwise degrade the planet's ability to support that population in the future is considered "sustainable".
Carrying capacity is difficult to accurately assess, however. In recent years, the Earth's carrying capacity has been suggested to be as low as one billion people, or as high as 40 billion people. Lower numbers are typically put forth by environmentalists and biologists, while higher figures are often put forth by economists and businesspeople.
This divergence appears to be rooted in philosophy. Many "growth" advocates argue that increasing population is necessary to provide more workers and consumers to expand the global economy. And they suggest that the natural ingenuity of people will overcome the problems this growth creates.
Some industrialized nations with stable populations already face shortages of younger workers, and growth advocates argue that their economies will suffer as populations age. Not only may there not be enough workers to keep up production, they suggest, but there may not be enough workers to pay into retirement and medical plans to support older citizens.
Advocates of "sustainability" argue that increasing population and consumption are already causing massive damage to the planet, and that deforestation, soil erosion, extinction of species, and pollution of air and water are all indicators of exceeding carrying capacity.
As far as economic concerns, there is no shortage of workers, they point out. Instead, there is a shortage of work, with roughly one billion people unemployed or underemployed. Worker shortages in industrialized countries may be resolved by importing workers from developing regions, and by keeping older workers who choose to stay in the job market.
Population Issues and Impacts
One way to view the issues and impacts of population growth is through the "population mobile". Essentially it shows that as our population increases, human needs--food, water, energy, livelihood, etc.--increase as well. We attempt to meet those needs by consuming more resources.
When population levels reach a critical threshold, we then see both a decline in the resource base, and damage to the environment, which supplies all those resources. These trends reinforce each other--the damaged environment provides fewer resources, and the shortage of resources causes us to further damage the environment.
At some point, when there are not enough resources to go around, we see significant scarcity, and poverty, which is the human face of severe scarcity.
Scarcity and poverty underlie a number of problems. One is discrimination. When resources are scarce, those in power often decide who won't get a fair share, and may discriminate against women and girls, or other races, religions, or economic classes.
When resources are scarce, people may also move in search of more resources. There are hundreds of millions of migrants in the world today, seeking food, water, land, and work. Scarcity drives legal and illegal immigration into the US and other industrialized nations as people struggle to survive and support their families.
And when scarcity is acute, people may fight over resources. As world population and consumption grow, environmental impacts multiply, and resource scarcity worsens. As environmental destruction and scarcity spread, and as more people compete for limited resources, social, ethnic, and political tensions increase. This combination drives political instability, declining social health, and greater migration.
The combination of population, consumption, and scarcity has fueled more than 150 wars since the end of World War II, and driven tens of millions of people from their homes as economic migrants or refugees. As shortages of essential resources such as water, farmland, and fisheries reach critical levels, many security analysts expect conflict over those resources to intensify.
Ultimately, our own numbers, and the lifestyles many of us choose to live, drive all the critical issues we confront. Left unchecked, the combination of population growth and consumption along with increasing inequity between rich and poor individuals and nations will ultimately threaten not only the well-being, but even the lives of a majority of people on this planet.
Solving the Problem
Fortunately, a future of scarcity, inequity, and conflict is not inevitable. We know what steps need to be taken to stabilize population. And we know that solving the problem of population growth will also help solve the environmental, economic and social problems we confront.
Conversely, solving environmental, economic, and social problems will help solve the problem of population growth. As the United Nations Conference on Population and Development reported, "Efforts to slow population growth, to reduce poverty, to achieve economic progress, to improve environmental protection, and to reduce unsustainable consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing."
On a personal level, there are a number of things each of us can do. Most importantly, we can control our own fertility, which means having two or fewer children. This is especially important for citizens of industrialized countries, because people in those countries have such large ecological footprints, due to their lifestyles.
We can lower our own consumption and environmental impacts by making intelligent choices about how we live, and what we own and use. Consumer preference is tremendously powerful in shaping product manufacturing and marketing, and is already beginning to transform many corporations.
We can support structural solutions to stabilize population, through voting, and active participation in the political process. While individuals can't implement political and structural solutions on their own, they can help raise awareness, promote discussion, and influence local, regional and national policies. Many of these solutions can be implemented at state, county, city, or even neighborhood levels, through land use actions and budget priorities and allocations. Many are already being implemented at some level around the world. Individuals can support and contribute to groups involved in that work, lobby their representatives to support and fund that work, and join in that work as volunteers.
The most important structural solution to population growth is universal access to reproductive health care, including family planning and sexual health. If every couple in the world could reliably and affordably choose the number and spacing of their children, world population growth would slow by nearly 20 percent almost immediately.
Investment in community health care is also necessary. Adequate health care would significantly reduce infant, child and maternal mortality, and allow community members to be more socially and economically productive. In some parts of the world, parents expect one or more of their children to die of hunger or disease. If they have a reasonable expectation that their children will survive and be healthy, they won't need "extra" children to offset those deaths.
Educating and empowering women is extremely important. Women with higher levels of education tend to marry later, bear children later, and have fewer, and healthier, children. More educated women generally have higher incomes, more economic options, and more power in their families and communities.
Universal access to education is another essential piece in stabilizing population. More highly educated people tend to have fewer children because they also tend to have higher incomes. At a certain level of income, children cease to be an economic asset and become a liability, so people have fewer of them.
Protection and enhancement of human rights is necessary so that all people have access to the requisites of a decent life. Focused anti-poverty efforts, including micro-development and access to credit, are also key components. Improving people's social health and economic well-being can move them out of poverty, and away from needing more children for survival.
Environmental protection and restoration efforts that take into account economic needs and realities must also be accelerated. Focus points include conservation and enhancement of critical renewable resources through regulatory and tax strategies, and development of sustainable technologies (especially energy) and transfer of those to developing regions
We know that these solutions work. Since 1950, total fertility has fallen 50 percent worldwide. Infant Mortality has declined by more than half in the last 35 years, and average longevity has increased from 45 to 65 years. More people are literate, more live under democratic governments, and more environmentally sensitive areas and threatened species are under some sort of protection.
All these efforts must be enhanced, expanded and accelerated, however. Because of population growth, there is less farmland, less fresh water, and less forested area per person every year.
The choices we make in the next few decades about our own numbers and lifestyles will determine whether the world of the 21st century will be one of hope and opportunity, or of scarcity and destruction.
John Goekler, © Facing the Future: People and the Planet 2000.
Population
Problem
 | ||||
ADOPT AN ANIMAL
WAF FACT SHEETS
